What causes the spread of model projections of ocean dynamic sea-level change in response to greenhouse gas forcing?     

Couldrey  Matthew P.  Gregory  Jonathan M.  Boeira Dias  Fabio  Dobrohotoff  Peter  Domingues  Catia M.  Garuba  Oluwayemi  Griffies  Stephen M.  Haak  Helmuth  Hu  Aixue  Ishii  Masayoshi  Jungclaus  Johann  Köhl  Armin  Marsland  Simon J.  Ojha  Sayantani  Saenko  Oleg A.  Savita  Abhishek  Shao  Andrew  Stammer  Detlef  Suzuki  Tatsuo  Todd  Alexander  Zanna  Laure 《Climate Dynamics》2021,56(1-2):155-187

Sea levels of different atmosphere–ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) respond to climate change forcing in different ways, representing a crucial uncertainty in climate change research. We isolate the role of the ocean dynamics in setting the spatial pattern of dynamic sea-level (ζ) change by forcing several AOGCMs with prescribed identical heat, momentum (wind) and freshwater flux perturbations. This method produces a ζ projection spread comparable in magnitude to the spread that results from greenhouse gas forcing, indicating that the differences in ocean model formulation are the cause, rather than diversity in surface flux change. The heat flux change drives most of the global pattern of ζ change, while the momentum and water flux changes cause locally confined features. North Atlantic heat uptake causes large temperature and salinity driven density changes, altering local ocean transport and ζ. The spread between AOGCMs here is caused largely by differences in their regional transport adjustment, which redistributes heat that was already in the ocean prior to perturbation. The geographic details of the ζ change in the North Atlantic are diverse across models, but the underlying dynamic change is similar. In contrast, the heat absorbed by the Southern Ocean does not strongly alter the vertically coherent circulation. The Arctic ζ change is dissimilar across models, owing to differences in passive heat uptake and circulation change. Only the Arctic is strongly affected by nonlinear interactions between the three air-sea flux changes, and these are model specific.

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Evaluation of 2-m temperature and precipitation products of the Climate Forecast System version 2 over Iran     

《Dynamics of Atmospheres and Oceans》2019

Using a continuous multi-decadal simulations over the period 1981–2010, subseasonal to seasonal simulations of the Climate Forecast System version 2 (CFSv2) over Iran against the Climatic Research Unit (CRU) dataset are evaluated. CFSv2 shows cold biases over northern hillsides of the Alborz Mountains with the Mediterranean climate and warm biases over northern regions of the Persian Gulf and the Oman Sea with a dry climate. Magnitude of the model bias for 2-m temperature over different regions of Iran varies by season, with the least bias in temperate seasons of spring and autumn, and the largest bias in summer. The model bias decreases as temporal averaging period increases from seasonal to annual. The forecast generally produces dry and wet biases over dry and wet regions of Iran, respectively. In general, 2-m temperature over Iran is better captured than precipitation, but the prediction skill of precipitation is generally high over western Iran. Averaged over Iran, observations indicated that 2-m temperature has been gradually increasing during the studied period, with a rate of approximately 0.5 °C per decade, and the upward trend is well simulated by CFSv2. Averaged over Iran, both observations and simulation results indicated that precipitation has been decreasing in spring, with averaged decreasing trends of 0.8 mm (observed) and 1.7 mm (simulated) per season each year during the period 1981–2010. Observations indicated that the maximum increasing trend of 2-m temperature has occurred over western Iran (nearly 0.7 °C per decade), while the maximum decreasing trend of annual precipitation has occurred over western and parts of southern Iran (nearly 45 to 50 mm per decade).  相似文献   

Simulation on the spatio-temporal distribution and emission flux of dust aerosol over East Asia in 2000–2009     

XingTao Su  HanJie Wang  HengRui Tao  LieShuang Liu  HongFeng Zhang 《寒旱区科学》2013,5(2):0230-0239

A regional climate model (RegCM3), coupled with an online dust module, is used to simulate the spatio-temporal distribution and emission flux of dust aerosol (smaller than 20 μm in diameter) over East Asia in the period from 2000 to 2009. The model performance is firstly evaluated against available observations. Simulation results show that the model can capture the characteristics of spatio-temporal distribution of dust aerosol very well over East Asia. There always exist two extremes of dust aerosol optical depth (AOD) and column burden (CB), one is in the Taklimakan Desert of Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region, China, and the other is in the Badain Jaran Desert of Inner Mongolian Autonomous Region, China. The maximum value of CB appears in spring, secondary maximum in winter and minimum in autumn. To the east of 110°E, dust is transported eastward from a maximum center at a height of 700 hPa over the East Asian continent. Dust emission sources are mainly located in the Taklimakan Desert, Badain Jaran Desert, North Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau and Southwest Mongolia. There is also an obvious seasonal variation of dust emission flux (EF). Annual mean dust EF is 1,015.34 mg/(m 2 ·d), of which 62.4% and 2.3% are re-deposited onto the East Asian continent through a dry and wet deposition process, respectively, and the remaining 35.3% is injected into the atmosphere or subject to long-range transport.  相似文献   

What drives the global summer monsoon over the past millennium?     

Jian Liu  Bin Wang  So-Young Yim  June-Yi Lee  Jong-Ghap Jhun  Kyung-Ja Ha 《Climate Dynamics》2012,39(5):1063-1072

The global summer monsoon precipitation (GSMP) provides a fundamental measure for changes in the annual cycle of the climate system and hydroclimate. We investigate mechanisms governing decadal-centennial variations of the GSMP over the past millennium with a coupled climate model’s (ECHO-G) simulation forced by solar-volcanic (SV) radiative forcing and greenhouse gases (GHG) forcing. We show that the leading mode of GSMP is a forced response to external forcing on centennial time scale with a globally uniform change of precipitation across all monsoon regions, whereas the second mode represents internal variability on multi-decadal time scale with regional characteristics. The total amount of GSMP varies in phase with the global mean temperature, indicating that global warming is accompanied by amplification of the annual cycle of the climate system. The northern hemisphere summer monsoon precipitation (NHSMP) responds to GHG forcing more sensitively, while the southern hemisphere summer monsoon precipitation (SHSMP) responds to the SV radiative forcing more sensitively. The NHSMP is enhanced by increased NH land–ocean thermal contrast and NH-minus-SH thermal contrast. On the other hand, the SHSMP is strengthened by enhanced SH subtropical highs and the east–west mass contrast between Southeast Pacific and tropical Indian Ocean. The strength of the GSMP is determined by the factors controlling both the NHSMP and SHSMP. Intensification of GSMP is associated with (a) increased global land–ocean thermal contrast, (b) reinforced east–west mass contrast between Southeast Pacific and tropical Indian Ocean, and (c) enhanced circumglobal SH subtropical highs. The physical mechanisms revealed here will add understanding of future change of the global monsoon.  相似文献   

study of ionospheric response to magnetic superstorms in the East Asian sector     

O.M. Pirog  N.M. Polekh  E.B. Romanova  G.A. Zherebtsov  Jiankui Shi  Xiao Wang 《Journal of Atmospheric and Solar》2010,72(2-3):164-175

In this paper, we present analyses of the great geomagnetic storms observed during last two cycles of solar activity. This study is based on data from a network of ionosondes located within the longitudinal sector of 80–150°Е. it was found that the superstorms were observed predominantly in equinox. Long-lasting severe decreases of ionization at high and middle latitudes were the most impressive storm effect. A short-time positive phase occurred in response to the onset of both ssc and recovery phases of the magnetic storm in the daytime at high and middle latitudes. Large time-varying rates of foF2 were observed at low latitudes. Modeling results of the ionospheric response to two superstorms are also presented. It is established that the storm effect at middle latitudes was controlled predominantly by disturbed thermospheric composition. At high latitudes, the impact of magnetospheric processes and thermospheric composition on the ionosphere was the same.  相似文献   

Middle atmospheric temperature structure over two tropical locations,Chung Li (25°N,121°E) and Gadanki (13.5°N,79.2°E)     

《Journal of Atmospheric and Solar》2002,64(12-14):1311-1319

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Modeling the low-latitude thermosphere and ionosphere     

《Journal of Atmospheric and Solar》2002,64(12-14):1337-1349

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Role of overshielding electric field on the development of pre-midnight plume event: Simulation results     

《Journal of Atmospheric and Solar》2008,70(17):2212-2221

An investigation involving nonlinear numerical simulation has been undertaken based on the observations of two events involving the reversal of nighttime zonal electric field to eastward direction over equatorial region due to the overshielding effect associated with interplanetary electric field. In one of the events, the ionospheric alterations brought forth by the prompt penetration event lead to the triggering of an equatorial spread F (ESF) event around 2040 IST and a plume structure during pre-midnight hours due to overshielding effect. In another observation, the ESF was found to be absent. The two-dimensional modeling investigation revealed that the storm-induced eastward electric field during nighttime over equatorial region is a necessary but not a sufficient condition for the development of the pre-midnight plume structure in the lower F-region altitude. The large scale size (240 km) perturbation amplitude of 5% is found to be insufficient for the development of late night plume event within 2000 s. A pre-seed in varying degrees in a localized altitude region depending upon the background ionospheric conditions, is found to be required for the development of the pre-midnight plume event. The confined ESF irregularities developed in the post-evening hours in a limited altitude range are suggested to provide such seed perturbation. The importance of the pre-seeded structure for the development of pre-midnight plume event is brought out from this investigation. The roles of the electron density scale length and the peak height of the F layer in deciding the required amplitudes of perturbation are also evaluated. This, in turn, can throw light on the night-to-night variability of storm-time ESF when a typical eastward perturbation electric field is operative during pre-midnight hours. The role of off-equatorial E region conductivity is also discussed.  相似文献   

Effect of self-weight consolidation on a hydro-sedimentological model for the Río de la Plata estuary     

Pablo Santoro  Mónica Fossati  Pablo Tassi  Nicolas Huybrechts  Damien Pham Van Bang  Ismael Piedra-Cueva 《国际泥沙研究》2019,34(5):444-454

The effect of the consolidation process on the morphodynamics and fine sediment dynamics of the Río de la Plata estuary is explored through a circulation-wave-sediment transport model. The consolidation model is calibrated based on settling column experimental data. Different simulations are done in order to initialize the mud layer distribution and to investigate the impact of different erosion parameter assumptions on the modeled sediment dynamics. Finally a two-year simulation is done with and without the consolidation process and realistic hydrodynamic forcings. Considering the consolidation process, the model correctly reproduces measured vertical density profiles in the Montevideo Bay access channel. The simulated suspended sediment dynamics behavior in Montevideo Bay with the consolidation process provides a more realistic deposition pattern in regard to the dredging activities.  相似文献   

A nested pre-operational model for the Egyptian shelf zone: Model configuration and validation/calibration     

《Dynamics of Atmospheres and Oceans》2017

We explored the variability of the Egyptian shelf zone circulation connected to atmospheric forcing by means of a numerical simulation of the general circulation. A high resolution model grid was used at 1/60° horizontal resolution and 25 sigma layers. The simulation was carried out using the most recent version of the Princeton Ocean Model (POM). The initialised model was run the whole year of 2006 using the analysis forcing data for the same year obtained from ECMWF and MFS (Mediterranean Forecasting System, Pinardi et al., 2003). The model skills were evaluated by means of the root mean square error (RMSE) and correlations. The Egyptian Shelf Model (EGYSHM) simulation suggests the presence of an Egyptian Shelf Slope Current (ESSC), which is flowing eastward at different depths in the domain. We found that the maximum velocity of the ESSC [0.25 m/s] is located near the continental slope during the summer time, while in winter the velocity of ESSC is weaker [0.12 m/s] in the same location. The ESSC appears to be directly affected by Mersa-Matruh gyre system. EGYSHM reproduced the main region circulation patterns, especially after adding the Nile River outflow. We found that wind stress is crucial to force the circulation of the Egyptian shelf zone. EGYSHM SST was significantly correlated to satellite SST in all months at a 95% confidence limit, with a maximum of 0.9743 which was obtained in May 2006. The RMSE between EGYSHM and Argo floats salinity data was about 0.09. We compared our results with satellite altimetry to verify the positions and shapes of mesoscale features.  相似文献